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The trade market is heating up in many fantasy football leagues entering Week 6. While trade strategy varies widely depending on league size and individual team needs, we will do our best as always to identify some players who are ideal targets in the current market.
We will again focus on three players that should be on the trade radar, either to acquire or attempt to trade away before we kick off Week 6.
Keep in mind, these players are not being identified as absolute "must buy" or "must sell" recommendations. If you would like advice on a specific trade scenario, feel free to reach me @Roto_Chef on Twitter.
CMC is coming back! Except he's not. Or is he?
Could be load management, but typically not a good sign to see a player fully downgraded as they’re attempting to increase workload for a return to play.
Something to monitor for Christian McCaffrey. https://t.co/AVmwEZ7JLd
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) October 14, 2021
Panthers head coach Matt Rhule says RB Christian McCaffrey is 50-50 to play on Sunday: “I couldn’t go either way right now.”
Be prepared for multiple weeks of this charade, much like the end of last season when Christian McCaffrey was perpetually week-to-week and "looking good in practice" before ultimately not coming back. He was on Injured Reserve for six weeks, came back for one game before getting re-injured, and then didn't play another snap despite not being placed back on IR. It made sense because the Panthers weren't making the playoffs and had just put down a big chunk of change to pay their star running back. It doesn't make as much sense this year because the team is 3-2 and has lost both games without McCaffrey but they could still be thinking long-term.
The Panthers have plenty of winnable games coming up with or without CMC. In the next four weeks, they face the Vikings, Giants, Falcons, and Patriots. In fact, of the remaining 11 games that matter for fantasy leagues, Carolina will only face four teams that currently have a winning record. Schedule aside, it is becoming clearer that they will handle McCaffrey with kid gloves any chance they get, which means Hubbard could retain value all season long even for non-CMC owners.
Hubbard let down fantasy owners in Week 4 but responded with a big game in Week 5, rushing 24 times for 101 yards and catching five balls for 33 yards. The receiving work is almost more encouraging than the rushing output since he only caught two balls the week before and was taken off the field for Rodney Smith in many passing situations. Smith has since been released and Hubbard showed he can be a do-it-all back in the NFL.
What has Panthers OC Joe Brady learned about rookie running back Chuba Hubbard? “He’s showing he can run the football in the NFL.’’ Does Brady think Christian McCaffrey will be ready for Sunday? He didn't give anything away. We’ll see on Sunday.
If you can pull off a trade before Week 6 kicks off, you could get good production out of Hubbard against Minnesota. If McCaffrey does play, that opens up a buy-low window as it pushes Hubbard's touch share down temporarily. Don't trade away a starting RB for him and don't expect a CMC owner to part ways with him unless it's a shallow league. The opportunistic manager who plucked Hubbard off waivers but doesn't really need him might be tempted to sell, though.
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders
Go ahead, lob all the rotten tomatoes you have on hand (hopefully none otherwise you need to question your life choices and hygiene habits). Sometimes a guy who's an absolute stud doesn't perform like one. You could be bold and try to trade away Allen Robinson except that nobody is buying right now unless you want pennies on the dollar. Waller will still command the equivalent of a WR1 or high-end RB2.
The season opener confirmed the fact that Waller is an absolute monster and provides a huge advantage at tight end on fantasy teams. Everything that has happened since then says otherwise. He's seen a solid, consistent target share with at least seven in each game but hasn't topped five receptions or 65 yards and his yardage total keeps going down. Remember, his Week 1 output of 10-105-1 came with a monstrous 19 targets. His 6.6 yards per target mark ranks 110th among all skill position players and is lower than TEs like Tyler Conklin, Hayden Hurst, and Jack Doyle. That figure is by far his lowest since becoming a Raider.
Being dependent on a high target volume is fine where you get them consistently. Fantasy managers typically should value players based on target share first. This offense isn't quite dynamic enough to make any player a standout, Waller included. Derek Carr's 7.7 Adjusted Yards per Attempt ranks 19th and the overall passing volume has dipped the past two weeks. There are also others to share targets with this year, as opposed to 2020. Hunter Renfrow is tied with Waller for the team lead in receptions (28), and Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards have combined for 30 catches. Waller simply isn't the end-all-be-all for this offense like he was a year ago.
By no means am I calling Waller a "must sell" or a bust. With the exception of Week 5, he's been a top-12 TE each time out. On the other hand, with the exception of Week 1, he is barely reaching that threshold and isn't living up to expectations based on draft capital.
Not only is the Raiders offense reeling, but the entire team is also in turmoil with their head coach abruptly resigning midyear. It's hard to say how that will affect the team in terms of fantasy production but it's unlikely to turn into a huge positive.
If you just spent a ton of FAB to acquire Williams, you were pleased as punch to see him go for 84 total yards and a touchdown in his first week replacing David Montgomery. Trading him now, with Monty likely out another month, seems ludicrous. But proper trade strategies work in your favor long-term, not for the coming week alone.
Williams was effective but we should also consider that rookie Khalil Herbert also saw 18 touches and actually outrushed Williams by 11 yards while carrying it two more times. This could be a full-blown timeshare going forward, although Williams will probably get more red-zone work and is the pass-catching back so he does have more upside. That doesn't necessarily give him enough work to slot in as a weekly RB2, especially in tougher matchups.
The best reason to trade Williams now is that his value is at its peak. So many owners are desperate for RB help due to injuries and now byes taking their toll. Williams will help you for a couple more weeks but Montgomery should be back by Week 11, just after the team's bye week. Tarik Cohen may also be back on the field by then if his return from ACL surgery last year goes smoothly. That relegates Williams back to irrelevance right before the late-season stretch and he gives you nothing during the fantasy playoffs. Take advantage of his elevated price by acquiring someone who is going to increase in value instead, like Javonte Williams or Chris Carson if possible.
UPDATE: Williams was placed on the COVID list Thursday afternoon and is unlikely to play in Week 6. This shouldn't affect his trade value dramatically but it does take a slight hit if he is unavailable for the coming week.
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